Friday, October 12, 2007

In Case Anyone Still Cares....'s what yesterday's election results would have looked like, had MMP been in place:

Ridings Won Party Vote Final Legislature Disproportion
Party # % % # %
Liberal 60 46.51% 42.19% 60 46.51% 4.32%
PC 22 17.05% 31.67% 39 30.23% -1.44%
NDP 8 6.20% 16.79% 20 15.50% -1.29%
Green 0 0.00% 8.01% 10 7.75% -0.26%
Other 0 0.00% 1.34% 0 0.00% -1.34%
Check totals: 90 69.77% 100.00% 129 100.00% 8.64%

I've divvied up the 90 ridings in the same proportions as the 107 ridings we actually have (see the real results, below), and used the recorded popular vote as the Party Vote (ie. no one decided to split their ballot). In this alternate world, the Liberals would have a minority, but a strong one. They could retain power by cooperating with either the NDP or the Greens -- who get 10 seats!

The reasons the referendum failed have been amply enumerated elsewhere, so I won't belabor them further.

The real election:

Ridings Won
# %
71 66.36%
26 24.30%
10 9.35%
0 0.00%
0 0.00%
107 100.00%


bPer said...

Thanks for this, EK. Saves me doing the numbers myself.

AJ Milne said...

Sigh. Yeah. Well, I sorta liked Larry Moran's attitude about this anyway. That's to say: 'we'll get 'em next election'.

My father, however, who's been pushing for reform in this direction, however (and was one of the guys handing out the MMP pamphlets), is, sadly, probably a smidge more realistic, in noting how long it took to get this one on a ballot. And I can't say I really want to go the way certain Quebec nationalists have gone, either--there's somethin' not quite right about repeatedly asking a question 'til you get the answer you like...

Ah, anyway. I really think proportional systems (and semi-prop variants) are gonna be the future, hidebound opposition from certain parties benefitting from FPTP's odd distortions notwithstanding. Most of the saner large democracies are off in that direction anyway. We'll get there. Sooner or later.